US, Iran prisoner swap does not spell thaw

It was a diplomatic breakthrough. Five American prisoners in Iran, three of them Iranians with American citizenship, and two unnamed Americans have been released in exchange for five Iranians in American prisons, and de-freezing of $6 billion Iranian fund in South Korea.

The response to the development in the US carried political colours, with Republicans opposing the swap and the de-freezing of the fund as giving away too much, and this was vocally opposed by former President Donald Trump. President Joe Biden lauded the breakthrough in terms of the prisoners joining their families after a tortuous five years. But the American government was guarded.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken while describing the development as positive ruled out that it meant any kind of thaw in US-Iran relations. And he said that the $6 billion Iranian fund that has been de-freezed would be monitored as to how it will be spent, and that it can only be used for humanitarian purposes. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said that Iran will spend the money as it desires.

Biden has however said that the nuclear talks with Iran would be taken up and efforts will be made to reach an agreement, though Israel, the closest ally of the US, continues to exert pressure that reaching a nuclear deal which ensures that Iran would not enrich the centrifuges to weapons-grade in return for unfreezing of Iranian funds and access to Western markets, especially for Iranian oil, is a bad idea. Israel is of the view that Iran would not keep to its promises and that it would get to make a nuclear bomb and that this poses a clear threat to Israel. Iran has always said that its nuclear programme was always meant for peaceful civilian purposes though Iran remains ideologically opposed to the state of Israel.

The Biden Administration, and the strategy experts, see advantages in bringing Iran into the Western orbit because it otherwise it would slip into the Russia-China camp. But the Democrats do not want to send out any overtly friendly message. It is always to remain a tough bargain and no concessions made on the basis of goodwill. The interesting part is that both sides, with the hardliners in their camps having a say in the matter, are willing to engage with each other in diplomatic parleys even through the worst of the stalemates. That is indeed an encouraging sign. Whether the US would allow its position towards Iran to be influenced by Israel or not, Washington does not want to snap ties with Tehran. It does not want to abandon Iran the way it did Afghanistan. Washington is much too aware of the strategic importance of Iran.

The Americans also recognise that Iran is not a monolithic regime, and there is not just a single view. There is a clash of views inside Iran though ultimately the word of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme spiritual leader, prevails. But there is a lot of to and fro before a stand is adopted. And Iran is hedged in many of its neighbours, including Iraq and Turkey.

So, Tehran’s leaders are left weighing carefully the fallout of any decision they take. There are quite enough strategic experts in Iran who know the advantages of keeping the doors open to the West because it has huge gains in terms of markets and transfer of technology. In the short term, there is no reason to expect US-Iran relations to become very friendly. There is not however much danger that the two sides will snap ties with each other. Hope remains that the two countries will deal with each other and also make necessary deals from time to time.