Erdogan enters runoff with an advantage

The presidential contest between incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his rival Kemal KIlicdaroglu was supposed to have gone in favour of Kilicdaroglu going by the opinion polls. But the voting has shown that Erdogan had polled 49.51 per cent of the votes, missing the 50 per cent mandated target, while KIlicdaroglu with 44.88 per cent in his favour clearly lagged behind Erdogan. The runoff poll is now slated for May 28.

Going by the numbers garnered by Erdogan and the challenger Kilicdaroglu, Erdogan has an advantage. But it could be a close contest in the runoff than it has been in the May 14 poll because there is a third candidate, Sinan Ogan of Ata Alliance. Kilicdaroglu had already got in touch with Ogan in the hope Ogan’s vote will be transferred to him. But that remains a speculation. It cannot be certain that people who had voted Ogan will follow his dictate and vote for Kilicdaroglu if Ogan and Kilicdaroglu reach an agreement.

Meanwhile, Erdogan’s People’s Alliance has achieved a parliamentary majority winning 325 of the 600-member national legislature. Erdogan’s own Justice and Development Party (AKP) won 265 seats with a 35 per cent vote share, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) got 51 seats with a vote share of 10.4 per cent, and the New Welfare Party (YRP) won five seats, according to unofficial results with 92 per cent of the vote counted.

On the other hand, the opposition National Alliance had won 213 seats with Kilicdaroglu’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) winning 168 seats with a vote share of 24.8 per cent, and the IYI (Good) party winning 45 seats with a 9.9 per cent vote share. Interestingly, Erdogan’s alliance bagged more than 50 per cent of the votes in the parliamentary election, while in the presidential contest he fell short of the required 50 per cent. It was feared that Erdogan would suffer a setback because of his government’s tardy response to the major earthquake that hit the nation.

Kilicdaroglu and the opposition want to roll back the constitutional changes that Erdogan introduced with greater powers with the president and the parliament in a weaker position. Even if Kilicdaroglu were to win the presidential contest in the runoff on May 28, he would not be able to do much because his alliance has no parliamentary majority to make the constitutional amendments which would restore parliamentary supremacy.

What is clear however is that Erdogan faces a strong opposition in the country though this is not reflected in the parliamentary result though he remains ahead of his opponents in the presidential and the parliamentary polls. Turkey has always been a keenly-contested democracy though Erdogan has remained in power for 20 years and he has effected radical changes in the polity, and he had literally overturned the secular ideology of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the modern republic of Turkey.

But Erdogan had displayed enough political skills to bring about the changes through the electoral process and not through dictatorship. He is indeed a conservative leader who is keen to concentrate power in his hands, but he resisted the temptation so far of avoiding absolute change. So the opponents of Erdogan can continue to challenge electorally, and if they fail to get the majority then they cannot blame Erdogan. They may have to change their tactics as well as their thinking. It is acknowledged that Erdogan played a key role in turning Turkey into an important player on the international stage. As a continuing member of NATO, Erdogan used Turkiey’s veto power in stopping Sweden’s admission into the military alliance, and he delayed the entry of Finland on the ground that the two Scandinavian countries have been supporting Turkish rebels.