Sudan slips into another crisis

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, have gotten into clashes with the army, and they have claimed that they have taken over Khartoum airport, the presidential palace and the residence of the army chief. Gunfire was reported from parts of Khartoum, including residential neighbourhoods.

The RSF has taken part in the coup that overthrew former Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019, and Hemedti had become the deputy leader of the Sovereign Council, sharing power with the army. The RSF has been a militia, which was employed by Omar al-Bashir in putting down the rebellion in Darfur and which resulted in the displacement of thousands and the death of countless civilians. Hemedti has been in favour of handing the government over to civilian parties. There has been a plan to integrate the RSF with the army.

The new clash between the RSF and the army is likely to worsen the unstable political situation as it exists now. It will only mean another round of civil war. Though the Sudanese army can be considered to be better organised and equipped, a war between the army and the RSF is likely to have a negative impact on the political situation as well as on the people at large.

Sudan is also facing an economic crisis and there is need for a government that can put the right policies in place and get international aid to tide over the crisis. Kholood Khair, director Khartoum think-tank, Confluence Advisory, sees the army-RSF conflict as a deliberate ploy to pressurise democratic parties to give concessions. Said Khair, “There are signs that they are working together to escalate the tensions and very publicly show this escalations to get concessions from pro-democracy forces, only then to de-escalate those tensions. This has been a cycle of rinse and repeat over the past few years.” The reason for the breakout of hostilities between the RSF and the army is the reluctance of the RSF to be integrated with the army because it will then lose only its separate identity but also the political clout. The army on the other had is keen that the integration process should be undertaken and completed. This basically turns into a power tussle between the two groups, and that leaves the civilian democratic leaders in the country out of the reckoning. The civilian formation, Forces for the Declaration of Freedom and Change, wanted the formation of a transitional civilian government and the two armed groups to have a representative each, and the goal was to draft a constitution. But the civilian leaders feel that the RSF and the army are more focused on military reforms and the integration of RSF in the army. In the process, the efforts to form a civilian government and draft a constitution is sabotaged.

The RSF in a statement on Saturday said that its deployment in Marawi should not be seen as violating any law but that the RSF was working as part of “national forces operating within the framework of the law and in full coordination with the leadership of the armed forces.” It could mean that both sides might declare that the clashes between the two had occurred due to a misunderstanding.

But there is no denying the fact that the RSF and its leader Hemedti have political ambitions of their own and it is unlikely that they are ready to be absorbed into the army and abandon their political ambitions. During its operations in the Darfur civil war, the RSF had also operated a commercial empire of its own. It is not any more an issue of sharing political power but it also about control of economic activity. The only restraint on the army and the RSF is that they cannot handle the deteriorating economic situation and there is need for a democratic government in Khartoum.