Somali forces repel militants in capital

The success of the Somali forces in ending the siege at Hayat Hotel in the national capital, Mogadishu, after a 30-hour battle is a successful operation with 30 dead, but it does not end the challenge posed by the Al-Shabaab militia, which is competing with Daesh in Iraq and Syria and with Al Qaeda in general, for influence and power. Somalia, which has been the frailest state in the last 30 years, starting with a deadly famine in 1991 and going through another major drought which has killed off the livestock of the majority in rural Somalia, seemed to be the ideal bird of prey to the extremists. But Somalia has managed to battle the militants, with help from a 22,000 Africa Union troops. One of the ways that Somalia can eliminate organisations like Al Shabaab is to attain political and economic stability. And it needs generous international economic aid. The Somali government cannot be expected to meet the economic and security challenges simultaneously. There has been the other challenge of the pirates off the Somali coast, posing a challenge to international shipping. Somalia is the perhaps the most vulnerable state.

Ever since 2011, when the Al-Shabaab militants were driven out of Mogadishu, the country had faced a succession of crises, including a famine where 260,000 people were killed, and half of them were children below the age of six. In the 2012 elections, a new government was formed, and a provisional constitution was adopted. The parliament elected Hasan Sheikh Mohamud, an academic as president. The government is shaken by infighting and corruption. In 2017, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed defeated Mohamud by MPs who were chosen by traditional clan leaders to comprise the parliament. In the same year, sensing political vulnerability in the country, the militants mounted a terrorist attack with a truck load of explosives going up in a commercial district in Mogadishu, killing 512 people.

In 2020, parliament voted out prime minister Hassan Ali Khaire for failing to organise elections based on universal suffrage. Mohamed Hussein Roble is elected prime minister in his place, There was a battle between prime minister Roble and Mohamed, and Mohamed even sacked him, but Roble refuses to step down. In May, elections were held, and Mahmud came back to power for a second time, a first for the country. In the meanwhile, in March this year UN Security Council replaced African Union Mission for Somalia (AMSOM) with AU Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), whose presence will end by 2024. And the American troops are back too.

Somalia must become a secure country internally, at the political and economic levels, for it to successfully counter the menace of Al Shabaab, though it is no easy task because the militants seem to have a steady supply of weapons and ammunition. In a poor country like Somalia, and in the Horn of Africa neighbourhood, Al Shabaab will find enough recruits to keep the pot boiling as it were. But the advantage is that Somali’s neighbours like Kenya and Ethiopia are as much threatened by the militants, and they will help Somalia in repelling the attacks of the militants. In the case of Afghanistan, on the other hand, the neighbouring countries showed no interest in keeping Afghanistan safe from the radical religious forces.

Organisations like Al Shabaab pose a threat to the international security system and there is need for an international response. But there is also need for commitment from the Somali politicians themselves that they would not allow the militants to take over the country. Despite their internal wranglings, the Somali leaders have displayed the determination to keep Al Shabaab out. And this is indeed the most crucial element in the fight against extremists.