32 years of provocation led to Ukraine ‘invasion’

News has been transformed by the Ukraine war into propaganda. All but a tiny minority of marginal Western media have become captive to events in Ukraine and since Western news agencies and print and satellite television media dominate world news, the Ukraine war story has taken over allowing Western leaders to ignore dangerous developments elsewhere. People I consulted during my recent visit to Beirut — including a former Lebanese prime minister — agreed with this assessment.

Russia has done nothing to counter this onslaught of news/propaganda. Russia not only provides no access to Western media, it has clamped-down hard on its own media and cracked-down on its citizens critical of the war. This gives the pro-Ukraine side absolute freedom to report whatever it likes.

The Ukraine war propaganda begins with a lie: Russia’s invasion was “unprovoked.” This lie has been repeated ad nausium by Western politicians and media with the aim of justifying the flow of US and European weapons and funds to enable Ukraine to defend itself. The invasion followed 32 years of provocation. Following the reunification of Germany, US Secretray of State James Baker assured the Kremlin, which feared the deployment of NATO weapons in Germany, that NATO would not expand “one inch eastward.”

Three months later, ahead of a summit with US President George H.W. Bush, Baker gave Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev “nine assurances” that NATO would morph from a military to a political alliance that would not threaten Russia. Instead, NATO expanded eastward by admitting Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic to the alliance in March 1999 after years of preparation.

They were followed by other former Soviet allies, reviving NATO as a military rather than political alliance.

Consequently, for Russia, close neighbour Ukraine became a “red line.” In January 2019, Ukraine amended its constitution to state that the country intended to join NATO. Years of NATO expansion amounted to protracted provocation while and Ukraine’s declaration of intention rang alarm bells in Moscow.

The news becomes propaganda when it is one-sided as is the case in the Ukraine war. Western media are reporting from inside Ukraine and surrounding countries because correspondents have access. CNN, BBC and to a lesser extent, continental European media have dispatched teams of correspondents to Ukraine’s cities which are under fire as well as front lines to record daily developments. Maps trace the course of the conflict on daily bases. Endless interviews with civilians fleeing the war, caught in crossfire, and rendered homeless by Russian bombing provide human interest stories. Photographers produce images of mass graves, unexploded munitions, and gutted apartment blocs and villages.

Russia’s siege of Mariupol provided three months of drama as Ukrainian defenders stood firm against Russian shells and bombs until there was no choice but to capitulate. Convoys of civilians and some fighters grabbed headlines. Humanitarian agencies report of deteriorating conditions across the country and call for funds to house and feed survivors. Russian attacks on military targets such as training camps, train lines delivering weapons and ammunition, and fuel dumps are reported as if illegitimate.

The constant flow of Western arms not only enables Ukraine to defend itself but also encourages President Volodymyr to continue fighting rather than negotiate a deal with Russia.

Even hawkish ex-US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has urged Ukraine to cede territory to Russia to end the invasion. During a World Economic Forum intervention, he called on the West not to seek a humbling defeat for Russia in Ukraine and warned this could undermine Europe’s long-term stability. The Washington Post quoted Kissinger as saying that the West should not get swept up ‘in the mood of the moment” and called for accepting negotiations on the ‘status quo ante,’ the previous territorial arrangement. Kissinger told Britain’s Daily Telegraph, “’pursuing the war beyond that point would not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but a new war against Russia itself.’”

Far from being my favourite commentator, Kissinger, now 91, was absolutely right about the “mood of the moment” created by the constant flow of news/propaganda. His comments echoed an editorial carried by the New York Times that held that Ukraine would have to make “painful territorial decision” to end the conflict.

Russia is the world’s largest country in terms of landmass and has the fifth largest economy in Europ. Russia has the world’s largest natural gas reserves, the second largest coal reserves, the eighth largest oil reserves, and contains other minerals essential to global advancement.

Russia is the second largest-after the US — exporter of weapons and has the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons. Although Russia’s armed forces have performed poorly in the Ukraine war, its military cannot be dismissed in the long-term and could be reformed, reorganised and re-energised once this war is over.

Although Western leaders are pursuing Russia as if it were their old enemy, the Soviet Union, it came to an end in 1991 and Russia’s rulers are not determined to revive this massive entity. Instead, they insist on defending the Russian homeland from encroachment from NATO which is seen by Moscow as a major threat to Russia’s very existence.

While the West is totally focused on Ukraine, other potential crises are brewing elsewhere, particularly in this region. Turkey is threatening to seize fresh territory in northern Syria where Ankara intends to settle one million Syrian refugees. Israel plans to drive 1,200 Palestinians from their homes and land in al-Khalil (Hebron area), build more than 4,000 new colonist homes in the West Bank, and empower Jewish religious extremists to break an agreement which bans Jewish prayer in the Haram al-Sharif compound. And, prodded by Israel and its US loyalists, the Biden administration is stalling negotiations on the US return to the 2015 deal providing for limits on Iran’s nuclear programme in return for lifting sanctions.