The fall of Mariupol and the war in Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin has on Thursday declared that Mariupol is under Russian control, and he told his defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, in a televised Kremlin meeting, “I consider the proposed storming of the industrial zone unnecessary. I order you to cancel it.”

Nearly two months after he declared war against Ukraine, which he called “special military operation”, President Putin seems to have something to show as an achievement. It is reported that about two thousand Ukrainian soldiers are inside the Azovstal steel plant. But Putin seems to recognise that the attack on the steel plant so that he can declare a total victory might involve time and huge loss of life for Russians. The military operations of the last two months have not been too successful. The Ukrainians have put up stiff resistance. The Russians aimed to take Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine in the west, but the Russian was caught in a logistical nightmare as the long convoy of armoured cars and tanks were stuck in a jam, unable to move forward or get back, and the supplies, both fuel and food ran out, and the weather turned an enemy. So President Putin seems to have his military lesson from the failed onslaught on Kyiv.

But he made a realistic and chilling remark about how to lay siege to the steel plant in Mariupol and the industrial zone. He said, “There’s no need to climb into these catacombs and crawl underground through these industrial facilities. Block off this industrial area so that not even a fly can get through.” We cannot be too sure of the success of the siege plan.

A few weeks into the war, Russia had understood the need to change the tactics of war. It had decided to move away from the west of Ukraine and from Kyiv and concentrate on the eastern parts of Ukraine. It was a strategic decision as well. It is the eastern part of Ukraine that is of greater interest to Russia, and it has already established a firm foothold through its occupation of Crimea.

And it is in eastern Ukraine that separatist groups are fighting against Kyiv, and many of them in the east are also Russian language speakers. A few days before the invasion of February 24, Moscow has recognised the breakaway republics of Luhansk and Donetsk, and this is the Russian-dominated Donbas region as well.

Mariupol has suffered the most savage attack from the Russian forces, including missile attacks which had left the whole city in ruins. Though most of the civilians fled, and attempts to create human corridors to facilitate their exit did not work, the Russian seem to be satisfied with its capture and consider it a war trophy. A surprising element has been that of Ukrainian forces holed up in the Azovstal steel plant.

Thought Putin has asked them to lay down their arms and promised safe treatment, Reuters reports that that on Tuesday Svyatoslav Palamar, commander of the Azov battalion, which was a far-right militia group now incorporated in the Ukrainian national guard, had refused to surrender. He is quoted as having said, “We do not accept the conditions set down by the Russian Federation on giving up our weapons and our defenders giving themselves up as prisoners.” At the beginning of the war, Putin had declared his war aim to be the destruction of the military infrastructure in Ukraine and clearing the neo-Nazis. The presence of the Azov battalion makes things messy for the Western supporters of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The presence of rightwing nationalists in the Ukrainian army is a new element to come to light. The war in Ukraine is far from over.