Russian-Ukraine stalemate hardens

Russia has made explicit its conditions for ending the war in Ukraine. It wants Ukraine to amend its constitution to incorporate the neutrality clause, to accept Crimea as Russian territory, and to recognise Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics. Russia has made clear the conditions it could impose on Ukraine if it takes its ‘special military operation’ to its logical conclusion.

Meanwhile, on the issue of evacuating the civilian population of cities under Russian military siege, Moscow said that the civilians will be shifted to either Belarus or Russia, during the third round of the ceasefire talks. Ukraine had rejected the proposal. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that there was no response from Ukraine on the conditionalities.

Russia has hardened its position. It is determined to achieve its military goal. But in doing so Russia might appear inflexible and rigid. And this may make things difficult for Russia and the countries bordering on Russia in the east of Europe. There is a growing sense in the West that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not stop with Ukraine, and he would make further demands in the future. The economic sanctions against Russia have not proved effective in terms of changing Russia’s stated position. This will only make the situation in east Europe more explosive than ever.

We do not know whether Putin is the sole decision-maker, or if there is a group of military strategists advising him. We do not know whether Putin and his advisers have a Plan B if the military expedition in Ukraine does not go as planned. But Russia could be facing a crisis at home. The economic sanctions will cause hardships for the Russian people, and it will isolate Russia completely.

It might be difficult for China to continue its support to Russia if Putin is seen to be inflexible and irrational. China will all its differences and frictions with Europe and North America considers itself to be part of the international economic system. It would not like to be ostracised from the global markets because its economic growth and vibrancy is dependent on its connect with the global markets. Russia on the other hand has not emerged as a strong economy which is vital to the rest of Europe. The gas supply pipeline Nord 2 to Germany and the rest of Europe has not become the lifeline it should have been. And apart from supply of wheat, the other big export, makes Russia a key player but it does not seem enough for Russia to have its way. It has been argued that cutting off Russian gas to Europe will choke Russia but it became apparent that Europeans will end up in spiking global crude oil prices. Similarly, inability to export wheat is sure to hurt Russian agriculture, but it is turning out that it is going to endanger wheat supply chains and create hunger in many parts of the world.

It may be necessary for Putin to show that he is flexible and that his intention is not to impose untenable conditionalities over Ukraine even if he is able to do so. It is accepted in international relations, that no country should be humiliated in defeat. Putin and his advisers must find ways to enable the Ukrainians a respectable surrender because the Russian military strength is overwhelming. But it is not enough to win the war. The conditions of peace must remain honourable. A way out for Russia is perhaps to guarantee Ukraine’s independence in return for Ukraine’s acceptance of Russia’s position in Crimea and recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics.