Greening the way to a better future

Many people, given half a chance, would care two hoots for the environment. They do not care if petrol guzzling vehicles emit toxic fumes. They do not care if trees are cut down in forests by the dozen. They do not care if pastoral land falls prey to commercial exploitation.

However, all these aberrations impact the environment. Billions of people live on farmland that is deteriorating and producing less food, and this situation could force hundreds of millions of people to migrate over the next three decades, according to a report. Larger tracts of degraded land mean conflict over resources is very likely.

Where the environment is concerned, the coronavirus pandemic has had an impact.

In early April 2020, emissions fell to 83 million tonnes per day, a drop of 17%, and some countries’ emissions dropped by as much as 26% on average during the peak of the confinement. However, in this regard, if all major nations, including India, develop strong plans for a green recovery from COVID-19, global annual emissions could be seven per cent lower in 2030 than in 2019 and millions of new jobs would be created in the energy, transport and materials sectors.

An analysis, commissioned by the We Mean Business coalition and conducted by Cambridge Econometrics, shows green recovery plans provide a fillip to income, employment and GDP better than return-to-normal stimulus measures, with the added benefit of reducing emissions.

Green recovery plans were found to be more effective than return-to-normal stimulus approaches that reduce VAT rates and encourage households to resume spending. However, the green measure that gives the biggest boost to GDP (electric vehicle promotion) will not reduce CO2 emissions while India remains reliant on coal-fired generation. To obtain economic and environmental benefits simultaneously, India will also need to implement measures to boost low-carbon electricity generation.” The analysis models a five-point ‘green recovery plan’ and a ‘return-to-normal’ plan each at an equal cost to the government. The green recovery plan includes a (smaller) reduction in VAT and public investment in energy efficiency, subsidies for wind and solar power, public investment in upgrading electricity grids, car scrappage schemes in which subsidies are only provided to electric vehicles and tree planting programmes.

Both recovery plans provide immediate boosts to output and employment, but the impact is consistently larger in the green recovery plan.

For instance, the green recovery plan in the EU would result in two million more jobs by 2024 whilst a green US recovery would deliver nearly one million more jobs than a return-to-normal plan. Globally, there would be a seven per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 if the five-point green recovery plan was implemented.

Tree planting schemes are effective at creating jobs in countries with the available land, accounting for 10 per cent of the additional GDP and 27 per cent of the additional employment in India and half of the new jobs in Poland.

Investing in the zero-carbon future is the best way to ensure business success. A report earlier this year however says despite mounting pressure for economic rescue packages to be used to tackle climate change, most of the money spent so far on overcoming the coronavirus pandemic has gone towards propping up business as usual, according to three studies.

But what comes next may be more important for the climate, as governments move from emergency mode and start planning – and spending – for a post-COVID-19 recovery.

The pandemic has already prompted the United States, Europe, China, Japan and others to commit trillions in stimulus funds, with further colossal injections expected within 18 months.

To climate advocates, these packages represent a once-in-a-generation chance to shift the world on to a low-carbon path by backing projects – such as renewables, efficient buildings and electric vehicles – to reduce heat-trapping carbon emissions.