UAE’s strong non-oil economy fuels Islamic finance growth

S&P Global Ratings expects strong growth in the UAE’s Islamic finance sector to continue over the coming period, supported by the strong performance of the non-oil economy.

According to the agency, the UAE has seen significant growth in Sukuk in foreign currency issuance since the beginning of the year, with issuance activity in the real estate and financial institutions sectors, amid a drive to attract more foreign capital.

The agency indicated that interest rate cuts are anticipated to continue until the end of 2025, fostering global issuance growth. The UAE’s insurance sector, both conventional and Islamic, is projected to expand by 15 to 20 percent, driven by economic performance and infrastructure projects.

Speaking to Emirates News Agency (WAM) during the 14th edition of the Annual Islamic Finance Conference organised by S&P Global Ratings and Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC), the agency’s analysts indicated that sustainable finance presents new opportunities for funding, particularly in oil-exporting nations pursuing carbon neutrality, while highlighting that the UAE is a key market for sustainable issuances in the region.

Dr Mohamed Damak, Global Head of Islamic Finance, S&P Global Ratings, said, “The global Islamic finance industry is witnessing remarkable growth, with total assets reaching $3.3 trillion by the end of 2023, an increase of 8 per cent compared to the previous year. All sectors related to the industry have witnessed remarkable growth, especially the Islamic banking sector in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).”

He stated that the volume of Sukuk issuances stabilised during the first half of the year, despite challenges in some markets, with local currency issuances seeing a slight decline as a result of higher interest rates in Turkiye, which impacted the growth of the sector there.

Damak stated that S&P expects the sector to grow at a high single-digit rate through 2024 and 2025, fueled by financing needs in key countries. He also noted that the US Federal Reserve’s anticipated 225 basis points of interest rate cuts by the end of 2025, including the 50 basis points already cut in September, will enhance market liquidity and promote increased Sukuk issuance.

He noted that the UAE’s robust non-oil economy will bolster the growth of the Islamic banking sector, highlighting the rise in Islamic Sukuk issuance.

“At the start of the year, there was significant growth in hard currency Sukuk issuance, driven by real estate developers and financial institutions turning to the Sukuk market to attract foreign capital.”

Rawan Oueidat, Director at S&P Global Ratings, discussed the sustainable bonds and Sukuk market, highlighting its challenges and opportunities. He forecasts that sustainable bond issuance, including green, social, and sustainability bonds, will stabilize at approximately $1 trillion this year. “While Europe and the Asia-Pacific are expected to remain the primary markets for sustainable bonds, the Middle East’s contribution will be limited to under 3 per cent.”

WAM