Global stock markets start September in cautious mood

Share markets fell slightly on Monday as investors braced for a data-packed week culminating in a US jobs report that could decide whether a rate cut expected this month will be regular or super-sized.

Survey data released on Saturday showed Chinese manufacturing activity sank to a six-month low in August, and data on Monday showed euro zone factories are also still struggling.

Wins for the populist parties in German state elections added a fresh layer of political uncertainty in European markets, while a holiday in the United States and Canada made for thin liquidity.

Europe’s STOXX 600 index fell 0.21%, after hitting a record high on Friday. Germany’s DAX and Britain’s FTSE 100 were down 0.1% and 0.2% respectively.

“European equities have opened on a weaker footing owing to weaker economic data from China,” said Aneeka Gupta, equity strategist at WisdomTree. “The industrials and consumer discretionary sector led the declines.”

The dollar index, which tracks the currency against six peers, was down very slightly at 101.68 after hitting a two-week high overnight. The U.S. currency climbed 0.55% against the yen to 146.96.

“We are seeing some natural caution at the beginning of a critical month for markets, with the Fed set to start its interest rate cutting cycle,” said Ben Laidler, head of equity strategy at Bradesco BBI.

“Markets made a dramatic recovery from the early August flash sell-off but now face seasonally by far the weakest performance month of the year.”

Chinese stocks lost 1.7%, led by losses in real estate after a survey showed home prices growth had slowed. Shares of New World Development, a major Hong Kong property developer, dived 14% after it estimated a net loss.

Futures for the US S&P 500 index were down 0.1%, while those for the tech-laden Nasdaq 100 were flat. U.S. stock markets were closed for Labor Day on Monday and Treasuries were untraded.

“We’re always a bit cautious when we’re trading at all time highs and when earnings expectations continue to be fairly lofty in the U.S. in particular,” said said Carl Hammer, head of asset allocation at lender SEB.

The big event of the week will be the US non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which is expected to show the economy added 165,000 jobs in August, up from 114,000 in July.

Traders currently think a September Federal Reserve rate cut is nailed on and see a 33% chance that it could be an outsized 50-basis point reduction, but that could shift on Friday.

The weak July jobs report helped spark a sell-off in global stocks at the start of August, although the S&P 500 has since rebounded to sit 0.4% off a record high.

Germany’s 10-year bond yield rose to its highest in a month at 2.349%, up 6 basis points.

Pressure mounted on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won its first regional election.

September has recently been a down month for stocks and bonds, analysts said, perhaps adding to the caution on Monday.

Deutsche Bank analysts said the S&P 500 and STOXX 600 have lost ground in each of the last four Septembers, while global bonds have fallen in the last seven.

Also important this week will be US survey data, job openings figures, weekly jobless claims and the Fed’s beige book on current economic conditions.

Oil prices were little changed after falling in recent days. Brent crude held steady at $76.91 a barrel, down more than 5% from a week earlier.

Aluminium prices fell to a two-week low on Monday after data showed factory activity in top consumer China slowed further in August.

Three-month aluminium on the London Metal Exchange fell as low as $2,411 a metric ton, its weakest since Aug. 19, and was 1.3% down at $2,415 during official rings.

China’s manufacturing data sank to a six-month low last month, with owners struggling for orders, an official manufacturing survey showed on Saturday.

The country’s real estate sector and automakers are the biggest users of aluminium.

Despite an improvement in economic numbers from the rest of the world, China’s bearish data still carries more weight in determining metals demand, said Dan Smith at Amalgamated Metal Trading.

Aluminium had been pressured since late August by holders of long positions closing out their trades, he added.

Algorithmic computer models that place buy and sell orders largely on momentum signals had flipped from buy to sell aluminium, Smith said.

In other metals, the premium of cash tin prices over the three-month contract almost doubled from Friday to $290 a ton.

This condition, known as backwardation, typically points to tighter supply. Tin was last down 3.5% at $31,200.

The closure of Yunnan Tin’s smelter for maintenance, announced last week, is expected to draw down tin inventory in China, the analyst said.

Tin stocks at warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 10,811 tons last Friday.

Among other metals, three-month copper on LME was down 0.9% at $9,152 a ton, nickel lost 0.8% to $16,640, zinc slid 2.2% lower to $2,834 and lead eased by 0.2% to $2,048.

Reuters