Global stocks market dented by hotter US inflation as yen slips

Global shares pared some gains on Tuesday after data showed US inflation was hotter than expected in February, dampening expectations for the Fed to cut borrowing costs any time soon.

Gold fell, the dollar held on to its gains and government bonds came under some selling pressure, which pushed up yields.

The MSCI All-World index was up 0.1%, encouraged by gains on Wall Street overnight and by a pickup in technology stocks in Asia.

Investors are pricing in the prospect of at least three interest rate cuts by the Fed this year, most likely starting in June. Tuesday’s CPI did little to shake this conviction.

“The inflation situation is going to likely drag out for several more months, thus possibly keeping the first Fed rate cut still on the sidelines for a bit longer than expected,” Russell Price, chief economist at Ameriprise Financial Services, said.

“We’ll have to see another month or two of the data to see if we truly do get a deceleration in some of the core costs. It’s still a wait-and-see situation. There are still components that are running hot that need to decelerate,” he said.

US stock index futures were up 0.4-0.5%, suggesting gains at the opening bell later, while in Europe, the STOXX 600 was 0.5% higher, having traded up by as much as 0.7%.

In cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin soared to a fresh record high above $72,000 underpinned by a surge in inflows into new spot exchange-traded funds for the digital asset. Hopes that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates have also lifted Bitcoin, which was last up 5.3% at $72,033.

The market though remains focused on the yen and BOJ.

In afternoon trading, the dollar was at 146.94 yen , down 0.1% on the day.

A growing number of BoJ policymakers are warming to the idea of ending negative rates at their March 18-19 meeting, sources told Reuters, amid expectations for hefty pay rises from Japan’s biggest firms. Results of this year’s annual “shunto” wage negotiations are due on Wednesday.

At the same time, an upward revision to Japan’s economic growth last quarter meant the country avoided a technical recession, adding to the argument the economy could weather tighter policy.

“We have gone from focusing on the April meeting for the BoJ to make a rate move to March. But I prefer a policy move in April right now,” said Amo Sahota, executive director at FX consulting firm Klarity FX in San Francisco.

“They have been slow to act all this time, so what’s the hurry now all of a sudden. We had the GDP revision but there’s nothing there that says Japan is about to go explosive in growth and prices that they need to come in really hard right now. I think they have little more capacity to wait.”

The dollar index rose 0.2% to 102.85, not far from the nearly two-month low of 102.33 reached on Friday when monthly payrolls figures signalled a cooling U.S. labor market, keeping the Fed on track to ease policy this year. The data did show downward revisions to January’s blowout number.

“(Fed Chair Jerome) Powell has said time and time again that the Fed has been looking for softening in the labor market, and it appears Friday’s release - though on the surface quite hot - might have shown the cracks necessary to move the needle earlier,” said Helen Given, FX trader, at Monex USA in Washington.

A stronger majority of economists in the latest Reuters poll also expect the Fed to start cutting rates in June. The survey showed more respondents expected any change in Fed policymakers’ rate projections at the March meeting to signal fewer cuts overall this year, not more.

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged up 1 basis point to 4.118%, while the dollar index, which measures the performance of the U.S. currency against six others, was up 0.14% at 102.93, having hit a roughly two-month low of 102.33 last week.

The yen fell against the dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda offered a slightly bleaker assessment of the country’s economy than he had in January.

This doused some of the optimism that the central bank might ditch its negative rate policy when it meets this month, which weighed on the Japanese currency, allowing the dollar to rise 0.4% to 147.53 yen.

A growing number of BOJ policymakers are warming to the idea of ending negative rates this month, four sources familiar with the central bank’s thinking told Reuters last week. The changing expectations have helped the yen perk up over the past week.

Futures now imply a 47% chance the BOJ will shift rates to zero at its meeting on March 18-19, though some traders still think it might wait until its April 26 meeting.

“The question for investors is whether the BOJ will stop at ending negative rates, or start a tightening cycle. We think the former,” Frank Benzimra, head of Asia equity strategy at SocGen, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum.

Sterling eased, falling 0.1% to $1.279, after data showed UK wage growth cooled a little more than expected last month, putting a bit more pressure on the Bank of England to cut rates sooner rather than later.

Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,173 an ounce, still in sight of last week’s record high of $2,194.99.

Agencies