India on track to become world’s third-largest economy by 2030

The Indian economy has been on a growth path for years, now ranking as the fifth-largest economy in the world, behind only the United States, China, Germany, and Japan. In recent years, it has surpassed the economies of France and the United Kingdom.

According to estimates and forecasts from international institutions, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the Indian economy will surpass the US$4 trillion mark for the first time in 2024, and will continue to grow to surpass the Japanese and German economies by 2030, reaching third place.

According to the World Economic Outlook report released in January, the IMF expects growth in India to remain strong at 6.5 percent in 2024 and 2025, raising its forecast for growth in the fifth-largest economy in the world by two percentage points for the two years, reflecting the strength of domestic demand.

The fund’s data indicates that growth will push the Indian economy to around $6 trillion by 2028.

Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings said in a previous report that India will remain the fastest-growing major economy and is on track to become the third-largest economy in the world by 2030.

According to the agency, India’s GDP is expected to soar from around $3.5 trillion in 2022 to a staggering $7.3 trillion by 2030. This rapid economic expansion will propel India past Japan’s GDP by 2030, solidifying its position as the second-largest economy in the Asia-Pacific region and the third-largest globally, leaving Germany in its wake. Notably, this achievement follows India’s previous leapfrogging of the United Kingdom and France’s economies just two years ago.

Several key growth drivers underpin the agency’s optimistic long-term forecast for India’s economy. Among the positive factors propelling India forward is its massive and rapidly expanding middle class, fuelling consumer spending in the country. Additionally, the ongoing digital transformation revolutionizing India is expected to significantly accelerate e-commerce growth and dramatically reshape the consumer retail landscape within the next decade. This shift has already attracted leading global technology and e-commerce multinationals to the Indian market, eager to capture a share of this burgeoning opportunity.

Beyond these two major factors, the agency highlights several other elements expected to contribute to India’s economic surge in the coming years. These include a young and increasingly productive population, a supportive government policy environment, escalating investments in infrastructure development, and a thriving startup ecosystem brimming with innovation.

With these powerful forces propelling it forward, the agency expresses strong confidence in India’s economic prospects, anticipating continued rapid growth in the years to come.

India is expected to remain one of the fastest growing economies in the world over the next decade, making it one of the most important long-term growth markets for multinational companies in a wide range of industries, including manufacturing such as automobiles, electronics and chemicals, and services such as banking, insurance, asset management, healthcare and information technology.

Deloitte Global said in its India Economic Outlook report in January this year that “India has come a long way in the last decade to become a global economic power.”

A decade ago, the Indian economy was highly volatile, but this has changed in recent years due to a number of factors. India has taken decisive and focused steps to transform knowledge and capabilities into unique products and solutions. India’s focus on using technology to accumulate and disseminate tacit knowledge, build advanced manufacturing capability, and improve competitiveness through exports have been the three essential catalysts that have boosted its growth trajectory and improved its economic fundamentals over the years.]]>

Meanwhile, Humaid Mohamed Ben Salem, Secretary-General of the Federation of UAE Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FCCI), said that the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between the UAE and the Republic of India has given a strong impetus to the relations between the private sectors in the two countries.

In statements to the Emirates News Agency (WAM), Ben Salem stressed the FCCI continuous efforts to support the development and enhance the volume of trade between the UAE and India, to bolster their business relations.

He noted the presence of more than 205,000 memberships of Indian companies and business owners in the UAE Chambers of Commerce, which enhances the importance of the UAE’s strategic position in promoting the Indian international trade movement.

He added, “With the CEPA entering its second year of implementation, the activities and events being held in and organised by the UAE and Indian private sectors reached more than 140 events in 2023, while January 2024 witnessed more than 25 joint events, including specialised trade exhibitions, conferences, forums, bilateral meetings and workshops.”

The Secretary-General of FCCI praised the distinguished relations between the UAE and Indian private sectors, as well as the levels of distinguished cooperation between them across various levels, especially after the signing of the UAE-India CEPA.

He highlighted the keenness of the Federation of UAE Chambers, as a representative of the private sector in the UAE, to support efforts aimed at boosting the volume of investments and trade exchanges, praising the economic standing of the Republic of India, which is the fifth-largest economy in the world, in addition to its position as the third-largest ecosystem in the field of financial technology (fintech).

Ben Salem explained that the Federation of UAE Chambers looks forward to signing a Memorandum of Understanding with the National Investment Promotion and Facilitation Agency (National Agency) in the near future, which will contribute to enabling and developing the opportunities and areas of bilateral work available in the UAE and Indian markets.

WAM