China new home prices in June flat in weakest showing this year

China’s new home prices were unchanged in June, the weakest result this year, data showed on Saturday, increasing pressure on policymakers for more stimulus as economic recovery falters.

The flat result from a month earlier, with rises slowing nationwide, was below May’s 0.1 per cent gain, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. Prices were also unchanged from a year earlier, retreating from a 0.1 per cent increase in May.

The property sector, accounting for one-fourth of activity in the world’s second-biggest economy, slumped sharply last year as developers defaulted on debts and suspended construction of presold housing projects.

The central and local governments and regulators have announced a slew of policies over the past year to prop up the sector.

Measures have ranged from extended financial support for developers to multi-pronged incentives for home buyers. But the uncertain economic outlook and persistent weakness in the sector have dented confidence and home demand, dampening hopes for any quick revival.

Weakness in home prices and falling exports are adding to pressure on policymakers to take do more to prop up the real estate and revive sluggish demand.

Markets widely expect more stimulus around a meeting of the ruling Communist Party’s Politburo late this month, setting the tone for economic policies in the second half of the year.

“The property market is in dire need of strong policies to boost confidence as small-scale policies can no longer rescue the dwindling sentiment,” said analyst Chen Xiao at property data provider Zhuge House Hunter.

Policies such as boosting employment and incomes must strengthened to support home buying, Chen said.

Thirty-one of the 70 cities monitored by NBS recorded month-on-month rises in new home prices, down from 46 in May. Prices were flat after rising in May in tier-one cities including Beijing and tier-two cities. They fell 0.1 per cent in tier-three cities.

There is room for “marginal optimisation” of property polices considering profound changes in supply and demand in the real estate market, Zou Lan, a senior official at the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), said on Friday.

“PBOC officials hinted at further property policy easing in the press conference on Friday, and we expect the July Politburo meeting to emphasise the need to stabilise the property market,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a research note.

The central bank on Monday extended until the end of 2024 some policies in a November rescue package for the cash-strapped sector. But the uncertain economic outlook and weakness in the sector have dented confidence, dampening hopes of any quick revival. A quarterly PBOC survey showed 16.5 per cent of households believe housing prices will fall in the third quarter, down from the previous quarter, when 14.4 per cent of households expected a decline.

Meanwhile rather than spur a relief rally in China’s battered tech sector, the past week’s developments at Jack Ma-founded Ant Group have merely reminded global investors of the fickle nature of the country’s regulatory policies and the fragility of the sector.

The initial market reaction when China announced a $984 million fine for the Alibaba Group affiliate for violating laws and regulations was one of relief, with many market watchers saying it signalled the end of a multi-year regulatory crackdown on the country’s technology sector.

But technology shares, including offshore-listed American depository receipts (ADRs), have barely rallied. Fund managers cite numerous reasons for steering clear of the sector, including stringent regulation in the future and a flagging domestic economy.

“In short, tech policy tightening may have come to an end but will remain tight going forward,” said Jon Withaar, head of Asia special situations at Pictet Asset Management.

“The more accommodative regulatory conditions we saw in the past, which facilitated explosive growth across the platforms, have given way to higher levels of regulation and oversight which will likely mean more moderate growth in the mid to long term.”

Both the Hong Kong-listed shares of Alibaba and its ADRs are up more than 9 per cent since Friday, when the fine was announced. But they still are trading at a third of their price levels in October 2020.

The KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF is up 5.4 per cent since Friday, while back home the CSI Overseas China Internet Index is up nearly 3 per cent.

Yet China tech valuations have been gutted in the nearly 3 years since Ant was forced to shelve its initial share offering, and fund managers see plenty of headwinds, apart from just policy scrutiny. Alibaba shares are traded at 11 times forecast earnings, while rival behemoth Amazon Inc is at 59 times.