UK wage growth at record high; job market shows cooling signs

A key measure of British wages rose at the joint fastest pace on record but official data also showed signs that the inflationary heat in the labour market is cooling, offering the prospect of relief for the Bank of England (BoE).

Sterling edged up but yields on two-year British government bonds, which are sensitive to speculation about interest rates, fell sharply, suggesting investors were dialling back their bets on how much higher the BoE would go with its run of rate hikes.

“There were some tentative signs that the labour market may be turning. But this has to be balanced against still persistently strong wage growth,” Ellie Henderson, an economist with bank Investec, said.

“The Bank of England will likely want to see an easing in the wage growth numbers before it can think about declaring an end to the fight against inflation.”

The 7.3 per cent surge in basic earnings in the three months to May compared with the same period a year ago was the joint highest alongside April’s growth - which was revised up on Tuesday from an initial 7.2 per cent - and the second quarter of 2021, according to data which goes back to 2001.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 7.1 per cent rise and said the stronger-than-expected increase left the BoE on course to raise interest rates for the 14th time in a row on Aug. 3, probably by another half-percentage point.

Before then, the statistics office will announce June’s inflation data.

Sterling edged up to a 15-month high against the dollar and also gained moderately against the euro. Markets saw a roughly 50 per cent chance of the BoE’s benchmark rates hitting a peak of 6.5 per cent in early 2024, up from 5 per cent now.

The BoE is monitoring pay growth closely as it assesses how much inflationary pressure remains in Britain’s economy. Consumer price inflation held at 8.7 per cent in May, higher than in any other big rich economy.

Governor Andrew Bailey said on Monday that wages as well as prices charged by companies were rising too fast and he vowed to “see the job through”. Finance minister Jeremy Hunt said the government would have to act responsibly on public sector pay.

But the inflation pressure was tempered by several signs of a slowdown in the labour market.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.0 per cent from 3.8 per cent in the three months to April and the number of people out of work increased by the most since late 2020. Job vacancies extended their run of falls to their lowest since mid-2021.

Samuel Tombs, with Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) might see enough signs of a slowdown in the data to allow it to halt its run of rate increases soon, although probably not in August.

“For now, wages still are rising too quickly for the MPC to tolerate on an ongoing basis,” he said. “But it always has taken a little time for changes in labour market slack to influence wage growth and some leading indicators remain encouraging.”

Annual pay growth including bonuses sped up to 6.9 per cent, the fastest on record excluding the coronavirus pandemic period when government job subsidies distorted the data, the ONS said.

Other signs of a loosening of inflation pressure in the data included a fall in the inactivity rate - which measures people out of work and not looking for it - to its lowest since the onset of the pandemic in 2020.

Meanwhile a key British mortgage rate hit a 15-year high on Tuesday when it rose above the levels reached in the aftermath of September’s “mini-budget” crisis, adding to strains on the country’s slowing housing market as the Bank of England battles stubborn inflation.

The average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate climbed to 6.66 per cent, narrowly exceeding the 6.65 per cent touched on Oct. 20 and the highest since August 2008 when it stood at 6.94 per cent, according to data provider Moneyfacts.

Britain’s housing market activity staged a recovery in early 2023 from the turmoil triggered by the unfunded tax-cutting plans of former Prime Minister Liz Truss. But homeowners and buyers have faced renewed mortgage pain in recent months.

Fixed mortgage deal rates have risen rapidly in recent weeks as stickier-than-expected consumer price inflation, which held at 8.7 per cent in May, pushed up bond yields and increased market bets on the BoE’s benchmark rate peaking at 6.5 per cent, up from 5 per cent now.

Governor Andrew Bailey said last month there were signs of more persistent underlying inflation pressures after the BoE unexpectedly raised its Bank Rate to 5 per cent in an effort to tame the highest inflation rate among the world’s big rich economies.