India’s merchandise exports may reach $87.2 billion in 1st quarter

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) has projected India’s total merchandise exports for the first quarter of FY22 to reach $87.2 billion. It would be around 70 per cent higher than $51.3 billion during the same quarter last fiscal, Exim Bank said.

Non-oil exports are likely to grow over 68 per cent on a year-on-year basis to $78.26 billion, compared to $46.4 billion during April-June, in the

financial year 2021 (FY21).

“The sharp rise in India’s exports could be attributed largely to the low base effect, pick up in global oil prices, and strong growth in advanced economies,” it said.

While the peak of the second wave of infections of the Covid-19 pandemic witnessed in India during end April-May 2021, could have subdued exports during the quarter to some extent, exports from India have nevertheless been relatively resilient.

The forecasts are based on India Exim Bank’s Export Leading Index (ELI) Model, which has shown an upward movement during the same quarter.

The retail investors can look forward to big IPOs raising Rs 1.12 lakh crore in India. Retail investors will get a chance to participate in good quality IPOs as several important names including LIC are on the upcoming IPOs list to raise as much as Rs1.12 lakh crore. According to market estimates, among the upcoming issues, insurance major, LIC is likely to launch a Rs 70,000-90,000 crore issue. The IPO list is dominated by financial services sector.

Food delivery chain, Zomato will launch a Rs 8,250 crore IPO while private sector airline, Go First will launch a Rs 3,600 crore primary market issue.

Birla Sun Life Insurance is slated for a Rs 2,000 crore-Rs 24,000 crore issue while home loan company, Aptus will launch a Rs 3,000 crore issue.

Microfinance company, Arohan will launch a Rs 1700-1800 crore issue while Fincare Small Finance Bank is slated to launch a Rs 1300 crore issue.

Jana Small Finance Bank is estimated for a Rs 1200 crore issue while the largest franchise of Yum Brands, Devyani International is set for a Rs1400 crore issue.

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) have made a total net investment of Rs 15,520 crore in Indian equities so far in June.

FPIs have made a comeback after pulling out investments for two consecutive months. In April and May, net selling by FPIs stood at Rs 9,659 crore and Rs 2,954 crore.

The return of the foreign funds comes amid declining number of daily Covid-19 cases and robust Q4 earnings.

Total net investment by FPIs in 2021 stands at Rs 58,649 crore. With the rise in FPIs, the key Indian equity indices also have off late climbed to new highs.

On Friday, both the BSE Sensex and Nifty50 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) touched their all-time intra-day highs of 52,641.53 and 15,835.55 points, respectively.

Shrikant Chouhan, Executive Vice President, Equity Technical Research at Kotak Securities said: “We expect FPI flows to India, in the medium term, to remain strong as India is at a cusp of growth revival path.”

He added that low interest rates, better exports outlook and revival in global economy is a good combination for India’s economic revival. Domestic demand revival will also be supported by upcoming festival season, according to Chouhan.

Meanwhile India’s agriculture exports (including marine and plantation products) have beaten the pandemic registering a growth of 17.34 per cent to $41.25 billion in 2020-21, a top commerce ministry official said on Thursday.

Speaking to the media, commerce secretary Anup Wadhawan said that excellent growth of Agri exports in the financial year 2021 (FY21) has come after it remained stagnant for the past three years ($38.43 billion in 2017-18, $38.74 billion in 2018-19 and $35.16 billion 2019-20).

In rupee terms, the increase is 22.62 per cent with exports during 2020-21 amounting to Rs3.05 lakh crore as compared to Rs2.49 lakh crore during 2019-20.

India’s agricultural and allied imports during 2019-20 were $20.64 billion, and the corresponding figures for 2020-21 are $20.67 billion. Despite COVID-19, the balance of trade in agriculture has improved by 42.16 per cent from $14.51 billion to $20.58 billion.

For agriculture products (excluding marine and plantation products), the growth is 28.36 per cent with exports of $29.81 billion in 2020-21 as compared to $23.23 billion in 2019-20.

India has been able to take advantage of the increased demand for staples during the COVID-19 period.

Huge growth has been seen in export of cereals with export of non-basmati rice growing by 136.04 per cent to $4794.54 million; wheat by 774.17 per cent to $549.16 million; and other cereals (millets, maize and other coarse gains) by 238.28 per cent to $694.14 million.