Stocks drift and still headed to worst quarter since the year ’08

Stocks are drifting in subdued trading on Tuesday morning, a rare calm day in what is likely to be Wall Street’s worst quarter of performance since the 2008 financial crisis.

The S&P 500 flipped from modest losses to gains during the first hour of trading, trimming its loss for the first three months of the year to 18.6%. Asian markets rose earlier in the day following a stronger-than-expected report on China’s economy, where factories are reopening as the spread of the coronavirus slows there. But momentum stalled in Europe, where the number of deaths jumped in Spain.

The surge of coronavirus cases around the world has sent markets to breathtaking drops since mid-February, undercutting what had been a good start to the year. Markets rose early in the quarter with expectations that the economy was accelerating due to a calming trade wars and low interest rates around the world.

Benchmark US crude oil has dropped by roughly two thirds this quarter and hit its lowest price since 2002, for example, while Germany’s DAX has lost a quarter of its value for its worst quarter in nearly 18 years.

The big question is if markets will get worse. At this point, no one knows.

The reason for the huge declines in stock markets from Japan to Germany to the US is that economies around the world are grinding to near standstills as businesses close their doors and people hunker down at home in hopes of slowing the spread of the virus. A record number of Americans applied for jobless benefits two weeks ago as layoffs sweep the country, and the economy will likely be in dismal shape until the spread of the virus slows.

The hope is that massive aid coming from the Federal Reserve and Capitol Hill can help prop up the economy in the meantime. Those hopes have led stocks to rally recently, and the S&P 500 has jumped nearly 18% since last Monday.

Goldman Sachs economists said Tuesday they expect the US economy to shrink 34% in the second quarter, but they expect growth to rebound in the third quarter.

The S&P 500 was up 0.1%, as of 10:17am Eastern time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 89 points, or 0.4%, to 22,417, and the Nasdaq was up 0.8%.

The relatively modest moves are a big departure from earlier in the month, when huge swings punished investors. The S&P 500 had its worst day since Black Monday 1987 on March 12 with a 9.5% loss, for example, only to outdo itself with a 12% drop two days later. Sandwiched in between was a 9.3% surge.

The number of known coronavirus cases keeps rising, and the worldwide tally has topped 780,000, according to Johns Hopkins University. The United States has the highest number in the world, more than 160,000.

Separately, Opec oil output rose in March from the lowest in more than a decade last month as Saudi Arabia boosted output following the collapse of an Opec-led suply pact.

On average, the 13-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 27.93 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, according to the survey, up 90,000 bpd from February’s figure, which was unrevised.

A supply pact by Opec and other producers, known as Opec+, collapsed on March 6, hastening a drop in prices that were already falling due to the coronavirus outbreak. Brent crude has plunged below $22 a barrel, the lowest since 2002.

While Saudi Arabia plans to boost supply following the Opec+ deal collapse, Opec output has not changed much yet because export deals for March production were already in place, said Petro-Logistics, a firm that tracks oil shipments.

“Opec supply in March is broadly unchanged versus February, hovering at record lows,” Petro-Logistics chief executive Daniel Gerber told Reuters. “Allocations for March barrels were locked in by the time the Opec+ agreement collapsed on March 6.”

Opec, Russia and other producers had a deal to curb output by 1.7 million bpd until March 31 to support prices.

The 10 Opec members bound by the agreement still exceeded the pledged cuts in March, the survey found. Compliance was 106% in March, a decline from 128% in February.

Production next month is expected to rise further. Saudi Arabia is reducing refinery operations in April to boost export potential and, an official said, plans to ship 10.6 million bpd in May.

Meanwhile, gold dropped as much as 2.4% on Tuesday as the dollar strengthened and strong Chinese economic data boosted risk appetite, but bullion was heading for a sixth straight quarterly rise amid fears over a global shutdown due to the coronavirus.

Spot Gold was down 1.1% at $1,604.91 per ounce by 1306 GMT. It has gained 5.7% for the quarter, and more than 1% this month. US Gold futures fell 1% to $1,606.70.  The dollar index rose 0.8% after posting a nearly 1% gain overnight, as Japanese investors and companies rushed to cover a greenback shortage before their fiscal year ends. Strong Chinese factory data lifted world stocks on Tuesday but markets were heading for their worst quarter since 2008 on jitters about the economic hit from the coronavirus.

Agencies