Indian housing market cools despite government support

Indian house prices will barely rise this year as a slowing economy and a liquidity crisis keep buyers on the sidelines, according to a Reuters poll, which forecast prices would fall in Delhi, the national capital.

With non-performing loans rising at major banks and financial institutions, bank lending - the main source of borrowing for developers and buyers - has dwindled, reining in a rampant property market.

After nearly tripling in the past decade and rising for many years at double-digit rates, house price gains have slowed over the past two years, according to Reuters calculations based on the Reserve Bank of India’s All-India House Price Index.

National house prices are forecast to rise just 1.3 per cent this year, according to the February 13 to March 1 Reuters survey of nearly 20 property market experts. That’s down from 2.0 per cent in the November poll and less than consumer price inflation.

The Bharatiya Janata Party government has introduced a host of incentives to shore up the real-estate market, but a majority of property analysts polled did not expect those measures to help anytime soon.

“House prices will only see moderate changes because of the uncertainty surrounding the general elections, present liquidity crisis and relatively slower sales,” said Anuj Puri, chairman at Anarock Property Consultants.

Next year, house prices are forecast to gain 2.5 per cent.

A majority of people said an economic slowdown and bad debts in banking and other financial institutions were the main downside risks to India’s housing market this year.

To stimulate the economy by driving up consumption, the government last month announced a cut in the tax charged on sales of residential properties under construction. But some property markets have struggled, and as the election approaches they are unlikely to benefit from the tax cut.

“It is no secret that in the past, funds parked by political parties in real estate were sucked out of the system to finance their campaigns - and the market is currently facing a serious liquidity crunch,” Anarock’s Puri added.

“The period leading up the upcoming election could prove to be stressful for the overall real estate market.”

Ten of 17 analysts said the market was “overvalued” relative to economic fundamentals.

“Most markets in India are overpriced. We Indians love to invest in real estate and the prices are largely driven by that same sentiment. But if you look at Mumbai and Delhi markets, it completely defies logic,” said Aashish Agarwal, who leads consulting services in India at Colliers International.

Delhi and Mumbai were rated either “overvalued” or “extremely overvalued” by nearly all respondents. More than two-thirds of analysts who answered the question said average homes in Bengaluru and Chennai were “fairly priced”.

House prices in Delhi, including the national capital region, home to more than 40 million people, are forecast to fall 2.0 per cent this year and stagnate in 2020.

Property prices in Mumbai, India’s financial capital, were expected to barely rise this year and next. For Bengaluru and Chennai, the median forecast was for prices to rise 2.3 to 3.3 per cent this year and next.

But not everyone was downbeat. Three of 17 respondents said house prices would rise 5 per cent or more this year, citing lower interest rates, the recent tax cut and budget incentives to boost housing demand.

“The steps announced by the government to support infrastructure creation, coupled with long-term positive impact of RERA (Real Estate Regulatory Authority) and GST, will pave the way for a stronger recovery of the residential sector,” said Anshuman Magazine, chairman and CEO at CBRE.

“Affordable housing will continue to be a key opportunity as buyers will benefit from availability of low-cost home loans and lower GST rates.”

Meanwhile, India’s GDP growth slowed to 6.6 per cent in the October-December quarter of 2018-19, the lowest rate in five quarters, primarily due to the stress among the non-banking finance companies (NBFCs).

A direct correlation can be seen as many NBFCs have been facing liquidity challenges resulting in slower loan disbursements and eventual fall in demand and consumption.

One of the worst-hit sectors in the midst of the NBFC crisis is the realty sector _ which receives over 90 per cent of its finances from NBFCs.

“NBFCs or Housing Finance Companies (HFCs) have incrementally financed 90 per cent of commercial real estate (CRE) loans over the last four years even while banks have largely stayed away,” said Shibani Kurian of Kotak Mahindra AMC.

“In fact, the commercial real estate book of NBFCs or HFCs like HDFC or LICHF has increased five-fold, from Rs30,000 crore in FY14 to Rs1,70,000 crore in the current fiscal. With the liquidity squeeze in NBFCs and HFCs, the refinancing cycle for CRE players has stalled.” Jaikishan Parmar of Angel Broking told IANS: “It would be appropriate to say that the financial sector squeeze has been responsible directly, and to an extent indirectly, for the slowdown.”

Agencies