This Georgia upset is the real preview of 2026

Pocketbook issues took center stage in Democratic victories in Virginia, New Jersey and New York Tuesday night, as well as in a usually obscure election in Georgia. Because Georgia is far more of a swing state than the others, the signal is strong: If Democrats want 2026 to be a breakthrough year, they need to stay organized and focus on bringing down the cost of living. The Georgia Public Service Commission is hardly a household name. Although it regulates the state’s electric utilities, making decisions that impact every household and business in the state, many Georgians likely don’t know what the board does.

Two incumbents on the commission were up for reelection and they were the only candidates on the statewide ballot. Low voter turnout was inevitable, but the contest surprised both sides when 21% of the state’s active voters — 1.5 million Georgians — turned out for the election, a massive increase from the meager 120,000 voters who turned out in the primary elections for those races. More than 63% of those who cast ballots Tuesday voted to oust Republican incumbents Tom Echols and Fitz Johnson and elect Democratic newcomers Alicia Johnson and Peter Hubbard. That represented a huge swing from the 47% that Democratic candidates got in the two most recent rounds of elections for the utility board, in 2018 and 2020. Tuesday’s PSC wins are the first statewide victories in a non-federal election year for Georgia Democrats since 2006. They also represent heavy state and national investments by Democrats, in a sign of how important Georgia has become to Democrats’ 2026 strategy.

What does this mean for those midterms, when incumbent Democratic US Senator Jon Ossoff will be up for re-election in a race that will help determine the fate of the closely divided US Senate? Will it matter to any of the races for statewide office — from Georgia’s open governor’s race to attorney general? Georgia’s PSC elections may fly under the radar, but they have long been a useful bellwether for competitive races statewide, said Charles Bullock, a political science professor at the University of Georgia in Athens. This year, voters are unhappy about higher electric bills and higher prices on goods. Dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump is rising, particularly among many federal employees living in Georgia.

All those factors point to a midterm election in which Georgia voters “may be leaning in the Democrats’ direction,” Bullock told me. Next year, Democrats can’t expect to match the 63% support given to the Democratic PSC candidates on Tuesday, he said, but they can expect “it’ll be closer to 50/50, with maybe even a slight Democratic advantage.” The Georgia vote served as a useful dress rehearsal for the midterms and both parties learned some lessons. Democrats learned that running on a simple message — “My power bill is too high” — is a winning strategy. Republicans learned that, now that voters have a taste of Trump 2.0, they don’t like what the GOP is serving.

The affordability issue was an easy one for Democrats in this race. The PSC has raised electricity rates for the state’s largest utility company, Georgia Power, six times in the last three years, hiking bills for the average ratepayer by $43 a month. Republicans, who held all the seats on the five-member board, agreed to the company’s rate increase requests three times; twice agreed to impose another charge for new nuclear reactors; and also passed along the higher costs of natural gas. The commission also approved new gas-fired turbines and voted to keep coal plants open past their previously approved retirement dates to fuel the operation of new data centers.

Unable to defend these policies and cost increases, Republicans turned the race into a partisan fight. Standing behind a sign reading “Don’t DEM the lights in Georgia,” Republican Party Chair Josh McKoon held a rally with Georgia Governor Brian Kemp and other Republican leaders last month to proclaim: “We are all united in one goal, and that is to send the message that Georgia is closed to the Democratic Party.” The incumbents also leaned into MAGA culture wars. Echols, for example, called his opponent Alicia Johnson, a health-care executive who is Black, a “DEI specialist.”