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China’s commodity import volume surge tells a different tale to slack value growth
The prevailing market narrative after China’s overall November trade data was that the world’s second-biggest economy is softening and starting to show the strains of the trade dispute with the United States. After all, both imports and exports undershot forecasts for the month. But while there is nothing inherently incorrect in such commentary, one factor that may not be getting as much attention as it should - the lower-than-
 
 
Oil traders focus on deteriorating economic outlook rather than OPEC
The weakening outlook for oil consumption coupled with rising output from US shale and softer than expected US sanctions have convinced most traders the market is moving into a period of oversupply. In the run up to last week’s OPEC meeting in Vienna, hedge fund managers had little confidence in the organisation’s ability to cut production by enough to avoid an oversupplied market next year. Fund managers sold another 32
   
Onset of a US recession could take longer than expected
WASHINGTON: The onset of a US recession could take longer than usually thought after key points of the Treasury yield curve invert, as a surge in US short-dated debt issuance has altered the dynamics of the Treasury market and other indicators show an economic downturn is farther off. As the Trump administration ramps up debt sales to cover a budget deficit projected to hit $1 trillion next year, it has crowded the front of the
 
 
Tightening US financial conditions to end Fed cycle
LONDON: US financial conditions are tightening, a potent mix of a strong dollar, weak stock markets and flat yield curve squeezing the availability of global money that will bring to an end the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle sooner rather later. By some measures, conditions are tighter now than they have been for years and money markets are reacting accordingly. A rate hike later this month is no longer the nailed-on certainty it had
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