Alexander Stubb

Alexander Stubb of the National Coalition Party (NCP) won by a slender margin the presidential election over Green Party liberal Pekka Haavisto. In the Sunday runoff, Stubb had 51.6 per cent of the vote to Haavisto’s 48. 4 per cent.

Stubb becomes president when Finland had broken with its traditional diplomatic neutrality, and joined the western military alliance, the Northern Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) against Russia. Finland made the strategic break with Russia after Vladimir Putin ordered an invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

It was Stubb’s predecessor, Sauli Niinisto, who was once very close to Putin and he earned the nickname of “Putin whisperer”. Niiinisto stepped down after serving two six-year presidential terms.

In an interview he gave last month during the election campaign, Stubb was firm and clear as to what his stance toward Russia would be as president. Stubb said, “Politically, there will be no relations with the president of Russia or with the Russian political leadership until they stop the war in Ukraine.” Stubb is open to the idea of allowing nuclear weapons to be transported through Finland, and of stationing NATO troops permanently in the country. Russia had issued a warning to Finland that it would retaliate over its NATO membership and its defence agreement with the United States in December.

The Finns are very concerned about the situation in Europe and the war in Ukraine. They seem to have felt that it was not possible any more to remain neutral and play the mediator between Russia and the rest of Europe. And they seem to find reassurance in the military alliance with Europe and the US. Russia seems to have alienated its long-time neighbour because of the war in Ukraine. There was much suspicion when Russians wanting to avoid military service had started crossing over into Finland.

European countries are not willing to do more than give military and financial aid to Ukraine. They are not willing to give membership to Ukraine in the NATO, and this was indeed what had triggered the war in Ukraine. Finland too would confine its sympathy to Ukraine to offering aid.

What does alter the security scene in Europe is that apart from the NATO military base in Finland, the US too would want to place its missiles in the country with a long border with Russia. Neither the US nor Europe would go to war with Russia, but it does heighten the tension between the two sides.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine had persuaded two Scandinavian countries, Sweden and Finland, to break their neutral stance, and apply for membership in the NATO. Sweden is awaiting the green signals from Turkey and Hungary. Turkey had refused to cooperate but it had given its consent as decisions in NATO are based on consensus.

With Finland turning a Western ally, Russia has lost the buffer state that Finland was between Russia and the West. It shows that the European countries, despite their deep cultural and political differences, perceive Russia to be a major threat to peace and security in Europe. A Finnish IT worker, Lauri, 36, told news agency Reuters, “Obviously, we all know we are in a difficult position nowadays looking at Russia the entire turbulence in the world today. So I think that is the biggest threat and biggest issue that we have.”

The war in Ukraine is now nearly two years, and there does not appear to be an end to it. Ukraine is fighting hard but it is unable to defeat Russia. And Russia for its part is not in a position to declare victory over Ukraine. It is a war that is hurting both the countries.