The deadly and devastating earthquakes in Turkey may create a political upheaval in that country if President Recep Tayyip fails to deliver speedy aid to quake victims. The sole declared candidate in the May 14th presidential and parliamentary election, Erdogan is already being criticised for the slow pace of assistance to the hundreds of thousands who have lost family members, homes and employment. Erdogan is particularly vulnerable to complaints because his Justice and Development Party (AkP) administers the 10 provinces hit hardest by the quake.

Turks are also demanding why Erdogan, who promoted the construction sector, and AKP administrations in the 10 affected provinces did not strictly enforce regulations mandating quake resistant measures in buildings constructed since taking power in 2002.

After the twin 7.8 and 7.5 quakes, the BBC’s Jake Horton and William Armstrong reported that even new apartment blocs collapsed even though they were advertised they had been built “in compliance with the latest earthquake regulations.” Instead of enforcing regulations, the authorities granted “’construction amnesties’” which allowed contractors to pay a fine without remedying the weaknesses in their buildings. Up to 75,000 of these dangerous structures were located in the quake struck area.

Erdogan began well. After becoming prime minister in 2003, he boosted economic growth through a construction boom, adopted a moderate policy on religious affairs, seriously pursued his country’s accession to the European Union, and proclaimed Turkiye’s intention of having “zero problems with neighbours.”

He warmed relations with Greece, Armenia, Syria, Israel. Erdogan visited Israel in 2005 and offered to mediate between Israelis and Palestinians. Since Turkey’s relations with Iran were cool, ties with post-war Iraq were complicated by the US-installed Baghdad government which was dominated by pro-Iran Shia fundamentalists and the largely independent Kurdish region in the north. Nevertheless, Ankara managed to cultivate relations with Baghdad and Irbil.

The “zero problems” policy did not last for long. In 2009, Erdogan castigated Israel for its war on Gaza and in 2010 relations were strained when Israeli commandos stormed a Turkish ferry carrying activists breaking Israel’s blockade of Gaza, killing nine Turks and one dual Turkish-US citizen.

A year later Ankara expelled Israel’s ambassador.

The 2011 Arab Spring also played havoc with Turkey’s policy. Six months after protests began in Syria, Erdogan intervened militarily by recruiting defected Syrian army officers for his “Free Syrian Army (FSA) to battle the government. He also formed the Muslim Brotherhood-dominated expatriate Syrian National Council as an alternative regime. His objective was to topple President Bashar Al Assad and replace him with a Syrian ally of Turkey. Erdogan’s intervention precipitated an all-out civil conflict and proxy war and the flight of millions of Syrian refugees to Turkey and Europe.

Erdogan initially welcomed the Syrians in the expectation they would back his plans for their country but Turks now want the Syrians to depart.

Erdogan also celebrated the election to the presidency of Egypt of Mohammed Morsi, a Brotherhood veteran, gave refuge to Brotherhood fugitives after his overthrow in 2013, and provided them with means to promote their cause, compromising relations with Cairo.

After Erdogan’s effort to negotiate an accommodation with Turkey’s insurgent Kurds collapsed, the Turkish military stepped up raids on their bases in northern Iraq, alienating Baghdad and Irbil.

On the domestic front, widespread protests erupted in Turkey in May 2013 when Erdogan launched the construction of a mosque and a tourist facility at Gezi Park, Istanbul’s main green space. The unrest was eventually ended by a harsh crackdown. In December of that year, Erdogan’s partner, the powerful movement of exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen, accused Erdogan and his entourage of corruption.

The Gulenists were highly influential as they ran schools and charitable institutions and their followers served in the judiciary, civil service, and the armed forces. Erdogan closed the schools and institutions and conducted a massive purge of Gulenists. In 2014, after 11 years as prime minister, Erdogan, was elected president and promptly transformed that role from ceremonial to political, usurping the powers of the prime minister.

After Erdogan survived a July 2016 coup attempt by opposition elements in the armed forces, he ordered mass detentions and conducted a new round of purges in the military, the civil service, and the universities. The security services and judiciary were tamed. He held a referendum to transform the country’s parliamentary political system into a presidential model with power concentrated in the presidency. He was re-elected in 2018 and is standing in the May 14th election, which coincides with the 100-year anniversary of the founding of the modern Turkish republic by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

Erdogan’s approval ratings have fallen due to Turkey’s economic crisis, high inflation, and the presence of 3.5 million Syrian refugees, he has used all the levers of power he controls to determine the result of this election. He has provided financial benefits for voters suffering from the country’s economic meltdown and threatened to close the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party which usually secures about 9-10 per cent of the v0te. However, he has purged an estimated 160,000 people and gutted state institutions, undermining Türkiye’s ability to provide relief and reconstruction in the socially conservative and devout provinces where his AKP is strongest.

In December, a court sentenced the mayor of Istanbul Ekrem Islamoglu from the opposition Republican Turkish party (CHP) to nearly three years in prison and a political ban for insulting election officials after they ordered a re-run of the 2019 mayoral election which he won. He triumphed in the re-run by an even larger margin and is seen as Erdogan’s most potent challenger in the presidential poll. However, Erdogan brought the election forward from June 18th as Islamoglu’s appeal is set to be decided by the high court on the 15th. While he could, in theory stand due to his appeal, if he were to win, there might have to be a re-run of the presidential election if his appeal fails, and, perhaps, the parliamentary vote if Erdogan’s party and its ultra-national ally do not gain a majority in parliament. In 2015, Erdogan ordered a re-run of the parliamentary election when the AKP and its allies failed to secure a majority.

Now that the quake has added a new challenge on top of economic meltdown, poor governance, and the presence of Syrian refugees, Erdogan is in a precarious position for the first time in two decades.