Nuclear meeting hits a roadblock - GulfToday

Nuclear meeting hits a roadblock

Iran

Deputy Secretary General of the European External Action Service Enrique Mora and Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani in Vienna, Austria. Reuters

The meeting at Vienna between Iran and the European powers also known as E-3, comprising France, Germany, and Britain, came to a halt. It is being termed a ‘pause’, an indication that the talks will resume. But the European diplomats have expressed disappointment with the proposals that Iran brought to the table.

They said, ‘Tehran is walking back almost all of the difficult compromises crafted after many months of hard work.’ Head of the Iranian delegation Ali Bagheri said, ‘I told them it’s normal that we’re not presenting documents and suggestions which correspond to your points of view.’ The latest round of talks comes after June when the Iranians halted or ‘paused’ them.

The attempt is to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, where Iran would curb its nuclear programmes which involved enriching uranium, which in turn enables the making of an atomic weapon.

The 2015 pact was between Iran and the United States, China, Russia, France, Germany, and Britain, known as Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the agreement when he became president in 2016. The talks have been revived after Joe Biden became president this January.

Israel has adopted a hardline status because it believes that the potential Iranian atomic bomb is a huge threat. Israel Prime Minister Naftali Bennett had asked US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to end the talks and described Iran’s stance as ‘nuclear blackmail.’ Blinken said it was ‘not too late for Iran to reverse course’ and that it could not ‘sustain the status quo of building their nuclear programme while dragging their feet on talks.’

Iran Foreign Minister Hossein Abdollahian sounded optimistic when he told the top European Union (EU) diplomat, Josep Borrell, that talks were progressing ‘but slowly on all tracks.’ He also said, ‘We think that a good agreement is possible but that requires a change of approach by certain parties who must drop their threatening language and opt for texts focused on cooperation, mutual respect and cooperation.’

Israel is not being very helpful in adopting a hardened stance, and the US must stop reflecting Israeli concerns exclusively. It seems that the US is representing the absent Israel at the talks. Perhaps it would be better if Israel is brought but Israel and its leaders will have to change their attitude towards Iran, even as Iran must end its ideological opposition to Israel. It would be futile for Iran and Israel to pretend that they have nothing to do with each other.

It is true that the Arab neighbours are as much concerned about the militarisation of Iran’s nuclear programme. But the Arab countries as well as Iran are willing to talk to each other about it. Israel and Iran must adopt similar approach to each other. The shadowboxing between the two must end.

Even as Iran has to change its attitude towards Israel, Israel has to change its hostile attitude towards the Palestinian state. It cannot sidestep the issue because the Arab and European powers are concerned about the growing military power of Iran which will create a security disequilibrium in the region. The hardliners must be reined in Gaza, but Israel must implement without further tardiness the Oslo Accords of 1994 and dismantle the West Bank settlements it has set up in territory it has occupied in the 1967 war.

Peace is not a piecemeal affair. It must be comprehensive. Iran has nothing to do with the Palestinian issue. If Israel keeps to its treaty obligations with Palestine, it will be easier for everyone else involved to pressurise Iran.

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Majority of US voters support the deal with Iran

US presidential candidate Joe Biden promised to return to the 2015 agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions. Instead, President Biden sticks to the dangerous and destructive policy dictated by Donald Trump who withdrew from the deal in 2018 and slapped 1,500 punitive sanctions on Iran.

Biden hesitates although 54 per cent of registered US voters support a deal while only 20 per cent oppose; among Biden’s Democrats the number is 70 per cent backers and six per cent opponents; among independents 50 per cent support and 30 per cent do not; and 41 per cent of Republicans are in favour against 35 who are not.

Since Biden’s own positive rating is currently a low 41 per cent against 56 per cent negative rating, it would seem it would behove him to re-enter the deal. The main obstacle is Tehran’s insistence that the US must lift Trump’s designation of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRG) as a “foreign terrorist organisation,” making the IRG the world’s sole national army to join a host of armed non-state actors.

The text, a somewhat amended version of the original document, has been ready for months and awaits finalisation. Why then is Biden procrastinating and prevaricating? He faces stiff opposition from domestic anti-Iran lobbyists and legislators and Israel where the government rejects the deal. In both countries military and intelligence experts are, however, in favour. They hold, correctly, that Tehran has made great strides in developing both nuclear expertise and output since Trump pulled out, prompting Iran to gradually reduce its adherence in retaliation.

Instead of being limited to 3.67 uranium enrichment Iran has 43 kilograms of 60 per cent enriched uranium: this is a few steps away from the 90 per cent needed for a bomb. Instead of having a 300 kilogram stockpile of 3.67 enriched uranium, Iran has a stock 18 times larger of uranium enriched above the 3.67 per cent level permitted. Instead of carrying out enrichment with old, approved centrifuges, Iran has employed advanced centrifuges.

Instead of abiding by the stringent monitoring regime put in place by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has been slipping surveillance. Until Iran began to breach the regulatory regime, it was the toughest on earth.

Nevertheless, Iran has pledged to revert to the deal once the US re-enters and to halt enrichment above 3.67 per cent, export all but 300 kilogrammes of the permitted 3.67 per cent of material in its stockpile, revert to old centrifuges which have been warehoused, and re-engage fully with the IAEA monitoring effort.

Opponents of the deal argue its “sunset clauses” will expire by 2031, thereby ending restrictions on Iran’s nuclear activities. This may be addressed in the new deal.

However, they also contend it fails to curb in Iran’s ballistic missile programme and sup- port for Lebanon’s Hizbollah, Yemeni Houthi rebels, Iraqi Shia militias and the Syrian government.

Since these issues are outside the purview of the 2015 deal, Iran rightly rejects including them in its successor. Tehran has also made it clear that they can be discussed directly with the US once Biden re-joins the deal and sanctions are lifted.

After months of trying to get the external issues incorporated into the nuclear deal, the Biden administration conceded that this is impossible.

On April 29th this year, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told lawmakers that the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign had failed and “produced a more dangerous nuclear programme” while Iran stepped up involvement in regional affairs. These post-Ukraine war remarks suggested that the Biden administration was ready to return to the deal.

However, the administration continues to blow hot at one moment and cold another. Last week Washington may have blown up the deal. At the 35-member IAEA board of governors meeting in Vienna the US — along with acolytes Britain, France, and Germany — secured the adoption of a resolution critical of Iran over its inability or refusal to account for traces of nuclear material at three undeclared sites found by IAEA monitors in 2019 and 2020.

The resolution, which received 30 votes in favour — with Iran and Russia voting against and India, China and Libya abstaining — urges Iran to co-operate “without delay” with inspectors after IAEA director Rafael Grossi reported he had not received a “technically credible” explanation for the presence of particles.

Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran spokesman Behrouz Kamalvandi pointed out that uranium “contamination” was possible “in a country as vast as Iran.” He also suggested “human sabotage” by Israel which is blamed for repeated attacks on Iranian nuclear sites and assassinations of Iranian scientists.

Iranian officials are suspicious due to the fact that former Israeli Prime Minister Bin- yamin Netanyahu instigated visits by IAEA inspectors to one of the three contaminate sites at the village of Turquzabad near Tehran. IAEA monitors took soil samples and concluded that there were “traces of radioactive material” at the location which may have been used for storage as there were no signs of processing. How did Netanyahu know there were samples at this site?

Although the IAEA still has more than 40 cameras which will continue to operate at Iran’s enrichment facilities, Grossi stated Tehran’s action mounted to a “serious challenge.” He warned that in three or four weeks the agency would be unable to provide “continuity of knowledge” about Iran’s activities. “This could be a fatal blow” to negotiations over the nuclear deal, he stated.

He also warned that Iran is “just a few weeks” away from having enough enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb. However, Iran halted work on weaponisation in 2003 and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has repeatedly stated that Iran will not manufacture nuclear weapons as they are prohibited by Islam.

Kelsey Davenport of the “independent” Washington-based Arms Control Association told the BBC that in ten days or less Iran could transform its current stock of 60 per cent enriched uranium into the 90 per cent required for weapons. She said, however, that manufacturing bombs would require one or two years.

If Biden continues dithering the deal could die, further destabilising an already unstable region.

Michael Jansen, Political Correspondent

12 Jun 2022